During the first four months of this year, the states located in the south-southeast region of Mexico have stood out for leading the post-pandemic growth in industrial activity at a national level. This upward trend in industrial production has been reflected and analyzed through seasonally adjusted data provided by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI). Among these states, Tabasco, Oaxaca and Chiapas stand out, which have shown significant growth in their industrial activity compared to the same period in 2019. This increase in industrial production has been driven by several factors, including the implementation of important infrastructure projects and the recovery of oil prices.
Tabasco: Industrial boost thanks to Dos Bocas Refinery
Tabasco has stood out as the state with the highest increase in industrial production nationally, registering an impressive 49.4% increase during the first four months of 2023 compared to the same period in 2019. This growth has been driven mainly by the construction and mining sectors, with double-digit variations in these areas. The start-up of the construction of the Dos Bocas refinery has been a key element in this increase, as it has led to a significant boost in industrial activity in the entity, benefiting both the construction sector and all related activities, from the procurement of raw materials to the provision of specialized work in this area.
In addition, the recovery in oil prices has had a significant impact on Tabasco’s industrial activity, as it is a state with a strong presence in the oil industry. The increase in oil prices has directly contributed to the growth of industrial activity in the region, generating a positive impact on its economy and development.
Oaxaca: Growth driven by the construction sector
In the first four months of the year, Oaxaca also positioned itself as one of the states with the highest growth in industrial production, registering an increase of 27.8% compared to the same period in 2019. In this case, the construction sector has been the main driver of this growth, presenting a rise of over 70%. The developing Interoceanic Corridor project has played a key role in this increase, generating significant demand for construction-related activities and thus promoting industrial growth in the region.
It is important to note that even though Oaxaca and Chiapas have shown growth in their industrial activity compared to the pandemic years, this growth is largely related to the basis of comparison. During the health crisis, these states experienced deep declines in their industrial activity, which, when compared to an advance, albeit of low magnitude in more recent periods, has elevated growth rates.
Chiapas, for example, had experienced significant declines in industrial activity prior to the Covid-19 pandemic. In the post-health crisis, these states have shown recovery rather than growth, resulting in higher variations in growth rates.
States in lagging economic conditions become attractive for investment, taking advantage of the economic growth opportunities that present themselves. Public policies are focused on covering deficits with large-scale projects such as the Mayan Train, the Dos Bocas refinery and the Transisthmian Corridor, which provide investment opportunities and promote industrial development in these regions.
The situation of other entities and the prospects for industrial growth
However, it is important to note that not all states have been able to recover pre-pandemic levels of industrial production. In total, 18 states have not yet achieved pre-pandemic industrial production levels. These include three of the four largest economies in the country, raising concerns about national economic recovery.
Colima has experienced the steepest drop in its industrial production, with a 26.7% decrease between the first four months of 2019 and the same period in 2023. It is followed in this negative trend by states such as Campeche (-18.4%), Baja California Sur (-17.8%) and Tamaulipas (-17.3%).
Concerns are particularly focused on entities that have a large participation in the national economy, such as the State of Mexico (-4.7%), Mexico City (-1.6%) and Jalisco (-0.7%). These regions have not yet been able to recover pre-pandemic levels of industrial production, which poses challenges in terms of economic recovery and industrial promotion strategies for the future.
In conclusion, the analysis of the first four months of this year highlights the post-pandemic growth in industrial activity in Mexico’s south-southeastern states, especially in Tabasco, Oaxaca and Chiapas. These states have experienced remarkable growth driven by infrastructure projects and price recovery in key sectors, such as the oil industry.
However, it is crucial to address the disparities in industrial growth among the different entities in the country. While some states have achieved significant growth, others are still grappling with the difficult task of recovering their industrial production to pre-pandemic levels. Effective strategies and appropriate public policies must be implemented to foster sustainable and equitable growth throughout the country, with the objective of strengthening the national economy and improving the quality of life of its inhabitants.
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